Summary
The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri.
On March 8, 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection to a third term in office. The primaries will be held on Tuesday, August 2.
News
About
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[93] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[94] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[95] | Likely R | June 15, 2022 |
Politico[96] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[97] | Lean R | March 6, 2022 |
Fox News[98] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
538[99] | Likely R | June 30, 2022 |
Web
Trudy Busch Valentine
Current Position: Nurse
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Wikipedia
Elections in Missouri |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt first elected in 2010 filled the seat of retiring Kit Bond and was re-elected in 2016. On March 8, 2021, it was announced that Blunt would not seek reelection to a third term in office.[1][2] The primaries were held on Tuesday, August 2.[3]
Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Anheuser-Busch heiress Trudy Busch Valentine won their respective primaries in Republican and Democratic parties to succeed Blunt. John Wood, a former Bush administration official and a January 6 commission investigator, is running as an independent.
Republican primary

U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second.

Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third.

U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth.
Candidates
Nominee
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri Attorney General (2019–present) and former Missouri State Treasurer (2017–2019)[4][5]
Eliminated in primary
- Robert Allen[6]
- Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr., retired social worker[7][8]
- Dennis Lee Chilton, 2018 Missouri House of Representatives candidate[6]
- Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri (2017–2018)[9]
- C. W. Gardner, doorman and former broadcaster[6][8]
- Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 4th congressional district (2011–present)[10]
- Rickey Joiner, barber and business owner[7]
- Patrick A. Lewis, union construction laborer[11]
- Billy Long, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 7th congressional district (2011–present)[12]
- Darrell Leon McClanahan III, political activist[7]
- Mark McCloskey, attorney and 2020 Republican National Convention speaker known for his involvement in the St. Louis gun-toting controversy[13]
- Eric McElroy, comedian and U.S. Navy veteran[6][8]
- Bernie Mowinsk, retired U.S. Air Force sergeant and perennial candidate[6][8]
- Robert Olson[7]
- Deshon Porter, host of The Big D Zone[14]
- Dave Schatz, president pro tempore of the Missouri Senate (2019–present), state senator (2015–present)[15]
- Kevin C. Schepers[7]
- Dave Sims, Monett public works employee and former radio host[16][6]
- Hartford Tunnell, college professor[6][8]
- Curtis D. Vaughn, valet parking attendant and liquor salesman[7]
Missed filing deadline
- John Brinkmann, insurance agency owner and financial consultant[14][7]
- Rik Combs, Retired U.S. Air Force Officer and Libertarian nominee for Governor of Missouri in 2020[17][7]
- Jeremy Gundel, farmer and write-in candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Missouri in 2020[18][better source needed][7]
Withdrew
- Roy Blunt, incumbent U.S. Senator (2011–present)[19][20]
- Dan McQueen, former mayor of Corpus Christi, Texas (2016–2017)[21][14]
Declined
- Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State (2017–present)[22]
- Scott Fitzpatrick, Missouri State Treasurer (2019–present) (running for state auditor)[23][24]
- Timothy A. Garrison, former U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Missouri (2018–2021)[25]
- Blaine Luetkemeyer, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 3rd congressional district (2013–present) and Missouri’s 9th congressional district (2009–2013) (running for re-election)[26]
- Mike Kehoe, Lieutenant Governor of Missouri (2018–present)[27] (running for governor)[28]
- Peter Kinder, former Lieutenant Governor of Missouri (2005–2017)[29]
- Mike Parson, Governor of Missouri (2018–present)[30]
- Jason Smith, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 8th congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)[31][32]
- Kathy Swan, former state representative (2012–2021)[29]
- Ann Wagner, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 2nd congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)[33][34]
Endorsements
The day before the primary, former president Donald Trump released a statement endorsing “ERIC”. There are three candidates with the first name Eric running in the Republican primary: Eric Greitens, Eric McElroy, and Eric Schmitt. Trump’s statement did not offer any clarification on whether this was an endorsement for one or multiple candidates, and when reached for comment by NBC News, Trump’s office declined to clarify the endorsement, saying it “speaks for itself”.[35][36] However, Politico reported it as an endorsement for both Greitens and Schmitt, as Trump had apparently expressed indecision on which of the two men to back before a dual endorsement was suggested; he separately contacted both candidates to pledge his support, and both subsequently claimed the endorsement as being for them.[37]
- Federal officials
- Joseph diGenova, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia (1983–1988), attorney to President Donald Trump[38]
- Michael Flynn, U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) (Democratic)[39]
- Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President (2017)[38]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019) and U.S. Representative from Montana’s at-large congressional district (2015–2017)[38]
- Individuals
- Rudy Giuliani, Mayor of New York City (1994–2001)[40]
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality[41]
- Bernard Marcus, billionaire and co-founder of The Home Depot[42]
- Victoria Toensing, attorney to President Donald Trump[38]
- Richard Uihlein, billionaire and co-founder of Uline[42]
- Organizations
- Federal officials
- Michele Bachmann, U.S. Representative for Minnesota’s 6th congressional district (2007–2015) and candidate for president in 2012[44]
- Kit Bond, U.S. Senator from Missouri (1987–2011)[45]
- Deb Fischer, U.S. Senator from Nebraska (2013–present)[44]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[46]
- Roger Marshall, U.S. Senator from Kansas (2021–present)[47]
- Tony Perkins, President of the Family Research Council (2003–present), Chair of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (2019–2020), and Louisiana state representative (1996–2004)[44]
- Individuals
- Eric Metaxas, Christian author and conservative radio host[48]
- Penny Nance, president of Concerned Women for America[44]
- Organizations
- Maggie’s List[49]
- Susan B. Anthony List[50]
- Missouri Farm Bureau[51]
- Missouri Cattlemen’s Association[52]
- Federal officials
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present) and candidate for president in 2016[53]
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)[54]
- Robert C. O’Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021) and Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs (2019–2019)[55]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) and nominee for Governor of Arkansas in 2022[54]
- Matthew Whitaker, acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019), U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa (2004–2009), nominee for Iowa State Treasurer in 2002, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[53]
- State officials
- Winsome Sears, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[56]
- State legislators
- Casey Guernsey, state representative for Missouri’s 2nd district (2008–2014)[57]
- Bill Reiboldt, state representative for Missouri’s 160th district (2010–2018)[57]
- Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway, state representative for Missouri’s 115th district (2021–present)[58]
- Cindy O’Laughlin, state senator for Missouri’s 18th district (2018–present)[58]
- Individuals
- Dana Loesch, radio and TV host[53]
- Rex Sinquefield, philanthropist and President of the Show-Me Institute[59]
- Organizations
- Missouri Fraternal Order of Police[60]
- Gun Owners of America[61]
- Americans for Prosperity Action[62]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[63]
Debates
Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Mark McCloskey | Dave Schatz | Eric Schmitt | ||||
May 31, 2022 | Greene County Republicans[64] | Ginger Gooch Darrell Moore | A | A | P | P | P | A |
Polling
- Graphical summary
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Mark McCloskey | Dave Schatz | Eric Schmitt | Other [a] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | July 21 – 24, 2022 | July 26, 2022 | 19.0% | 24.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 33.0% | 9.0% | Schmitt +8.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Mark McCloskey | Dave Schatz | Eric Schmitt | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 1, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 34% | – | 15% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | July 27–28, 2022 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 18% | 22% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 34% | 2% | 8% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | July 27, 2022 | 891 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 17% | 16% | – | – | – | 28% | – | – |
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 20% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 28% | 4% | 21% |
Emerson College | July 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 16% | 21% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 33% | 1%[c] | 17% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | July 23–24, 2022 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 32% | – | 10% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 22–24, 2022 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 27% | – | 16% |
The Tarrance Group (R)[C] | July 5–7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 28% | – | 18% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 28–30, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 23% | – | 17% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | June 22–23, 2022 | 911 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 20% | 19% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 25% | – | 21% |
Emerson College | June 2–5, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 20% | 1%[d] | 27% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 16–18, 2022 | 1,065 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 26% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 19% | – | 17% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 642 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 26% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 17% | 7%[e] | 28% |
Remington Research (R)[D] | May 11–12, 2022 | 945 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 21% | 23% | – | – | – | 29% | 10% | 17% |
co/efficient (R)[E] | May 2–4, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 14% | – | 27% |
NMB Research (R)[F] | April 6–7, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 25% | 20% | – |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[G] | April 4–6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 22% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 16% | – | 21% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 24–29, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 22% | – | 16% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | March 22–23, 2022 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 24% | – | 19% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 22–24, 2022 | 1,026 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 23% | 3% | 15% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | February 16–17, 2022 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 25% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 22% | – | 20% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | January 26–27, 2022 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 28% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 23% | – | 17% |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[G] | January 2022 | – (LV) | – | 30% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 16% | – | 23% |
CMA Strategies (R)[H] | January 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 27% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 15% | – | 36% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | December 1–2, 2021 | 744 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 27% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 24% | – | 19% |
NMB Research (R)[F] | December 2021 | – (LV) | – | 34% | – | – | – | – | 17% | 49% | – |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | October 20–21, 2021 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 27% | 19% | 8% | 4% | – | 25% | – | 17% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[E] | October 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 17% | 1%[f] | 25% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | September 8–9, 2021 | 847 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 5% | – | 28% | – | 15% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | August 4–5, 2021 | 911 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 13% | 12% | 9% | – | 24% | – | 15% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | June 9–10, 2021 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 14% | – | 7% | – | 25% | – | 20% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | March 24–25, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | – | 14% | – | – | 30% | – | 20% |
40% | – | – | – | – | 39% | – | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Roy Blunt | John Brunner | Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Eric Schmitt | Jason Smith | Ann Wagner | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | March 24–25, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 2% | 31% | 8% | 6% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
– | 10% | 38% | – | – | 30% | – | – | 22% | ||||
– | – | 36% | – | – | 29% | 16% | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | 38% | – | – | 26% | – | 18% | 18% | ||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[E] | March 23–25, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | – | 48% | – | – | 11% | 7% | 9% | 26% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | December 2–3, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | 25% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Eric Schmitt | 298,852 | 45.7 | |
Republican | Vicky Hartzler | 144,469 | 22.1 | |
Republican | Eric Greitens | 123,982 | 18.9 | |
Republican | Billy Long | 32,555 | 5.0 | |
Republican | Mark McCloskey | 19,505 | 3.0 | |
Republican | Dave Schatz | 7,494 | 1.1 | |
Republican | Patrick A. Lewis | 6,070 | 0.9 | |
Republican | Curtis D. Vaughn | 3,446 | 0.5 | |
Republican | Eric McElroy | 2,797 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Robert Allen | 2,107 | 0.3 | |
Republican | C. W. Gardner | 2,038 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Dave Sims | 1,943 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Bernie Mowinsk | 1,599 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Deshon Porter | 1,573 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Darrell Leon McClanahan III | 1,135 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Rickey Joiner | 1,081 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Robert Olson | 1,076 | 0.2 | |
Republican | Dennis Lee Chilton | 754 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr. | 683 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Kevin C. Schepers | 679 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Hartford Tunnell | 636 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 654,474 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary

AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second.
As the Democratic primary progressed, three main contenders emerged; Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project, Spencer Toder, a businessman, and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company.[66] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances.[66]
Candidates
Nominee
- Trudy Busch Valentine, former nurse and daughter of beer magnate August Busch Jr.[67]
Eliminated in primary
- Ron Harris, truck driver, U.S. Air Force veteran, and perennial candidate[7][8]
- Jewel Kelly, real estate agent and U.S. Air Force veteran[68]
- Pat Kelly, environmental engineer and patent attorney[7]
- Lucas Kunce, national security director of the American Economic Liberties Project and retired U.S. Marine Corps officer[69]
- Lewis Rolen, medical operational assistant[6][8]
- Gena Ross, college professor and nominee for Missouri’s 6th congressional district in 2020[70][71]
- Josh Shipp, physical therapy technician and candidate for Missouri’s 1st congressional district in 2018[6][8]
- Clay Taylor[7]
- Spencer Toder, entrepreneur[68]
- Carla Coffee Wright, businesswoman, actress, and perennial candidate[72]
Withdrew
- Tim Shepard, tech entrepreneur (endorsed Valentine)[73][74]
- Scott Sifton, former state senator (2013–2021) (endorsed Valentine)[75][67]
Declined
- Cori Bush, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 1st congressional district (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for re-election)[76]
- Nicole Galloway, Missouri State Auditor (2015–present) and nominee for Governor of Missouri in 2020 (endorsed Sifton)[77][78]
- Elad Gross, civil rights attorney, former Assistant Attorney General of Missouri, and candidate for Missouri Attorney General in 2020[73]
- Jason Kander, former Secretary of State of Missouri (2013–2017), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for mayor of Kansas City in 2019[73]
- Chris Koster, former Missouri Attorney General (2009–2017) and nominee for Governor of Missouri in 2016[1]
- Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City (2019–present) (running for re-election in 2023)[79][80]
- Claire McCaskill, former U.S. Senator (2007–2019)[73]
- Jay Nixon, former Governor of Missouri (2009–2017) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1988 and 1998[81]
- Brian Williams, state senator (2019–present) (running for re-election)[82]
- Clint Zweifel, former Missouri State Treasurer (2009–2017)[82]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present) and U.S. Representative for Vermont’s at-large congressional district (1991–2007)[83]
- U.S. Representatives
- Bill Clay, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 1st congressional district (1969–2001)[84]
- State officials
- John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–present), mayor of Braddock (2006–2019), and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania[85]
- State legislators
- Rasheen Aldridge Jr., state representative for Missouri’s 78th district (2019–present)[86]
- Michael Johnson, state representative for Missouri’s 23rd district (2021–present)[86]
- Wes Shoemyer, state senator for Missouri’s 18th district (2007–2011) and state representative for Missouri’s 9th district (2001–2007)[87]
- Local officials
- Rita Heard Days, member of the St. Louis County Council (2019–present) and state senator (2003–2011)[87]
- Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present)[86]
- Tommie Pierson Sr., mayor of Bellefontaine Neighbors (2019–present) and state representative for Missouri’s 66th district (2011–2017)[86]
- Katheryn Shields, member of the Kansas City, Missouri City Council (2015–present) and County Executive of Jackson County (1995–2007)[86]
- Individuals
- Jon Hamm, actor[88]
- Stephanie Taylor, political activist, author, and co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee[89]
- Organizations
- Indivisible St. Louis[90]
- League of Conservation Voters[91]
- MoveOn[87]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[89]
- VoteVets[92]
- Newspapers and publications
- U.S. Senators
- Jean Carnahan, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2001–2002) and First Lady of Missouri (1993–2000)[83]
- U.S. Representatives
- Emanuel Cleaver, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 5th congressional district (2005–present) and mayor of Kansas City (1991-1999)[94]
- Dick Gephardt, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 3rd congressional district (1977–2005), House Minority Leader (1995–2003) and House Majority Leader (1989–1995)[86]
- State officials
- Bob Holden, Governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[86]
- State legislators
- Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri’s 76th district (2021–present)[86]
- Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri’s 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri’s 18th district (2015–2018)[86]
- Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri’s 14th district (2021–present)[86]
- Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri’s 82nd district (2017–present)[86]
- Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri’s 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri’s 92nd district (2017–2021)[86]
- Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri’s 81st district (2019–present)[86]
- Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri’s 35th district (2019–present)[86]
- Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri’s 24th district (2015–present) and nominee for Missouri’s 2nd congressional district in 2020[86]
- Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri’s 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri’s 96th district (2011–2013)[67]
- Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri’s 87th district (2019–present)[86]
- Tracy McCreery, state representative for Missouri’s 88th district (2015–present) and 83rd district (2012–2013)[86]
- Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri’s 18th district (2019–present)[86]
- Local officials
- Charlie Dooley, St. Louis County Executive (2003–2015)[86]
- Tishaura Jones, mayor of St. Louis (2021–present)[95]
- Lyda Krewson, mayor of St. Louis (2017–2021)[86]
- Francis Slay, mayor of St. Louis (2001–2017)[86]
Polling
- Graphical summary
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Lucas Kunce | Spencer Toder | Trudy Busch Valentine | Carla “Coffee” Wright | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 547 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 14% | 3% | 40% | 6% | 9%[g] | 28% |
Emerson College | July 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 3% | 39% | 1% | 1%[h] | 22% |
Triton Polling & Research (D)[I] | May 2022 | ~544 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 19% | 24% | 26% | – | – | 31% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 12%[i] | 63% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] | April 13–14, 2022 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 25% | – | 18% | – | – | 56% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Trudy Busch Valentine | 158,583 | 43.2 | |
Democratic | Lucas Kunce | 140,953 | 38.4 | |
Democratic | Spencer Toder | 17,412 | 4.7 | |
Democratic | Carla Coffee Wright | 14,391 | 3.9 | |
Democratic | Gena Ross | 8,715 | 2.4 | |
Democratic | Jewel Kelly | 6,443 | 1.8 | |
Democratic | Lewis Rolen | 5,228 | 1.4 | |
Democratic | Pat Kelly | 4,988 | 1.4 | |
Democratic | Ronald (Ron) William Harris | 4,063 | 1.1 | |
Democratic | Josh Shipp | 3,325 | 0.9 | |
Democratic | Clarence (Clay) Taylor | 3,319 | 0.9 | |
Total votes | 367,420 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2,952 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 2,952 | 100.0 |
Constitution primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Paul Venable, information technology consultant and nominee for Secretary of State in 2020[7]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Constitution | Paul Venable | 712 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 712 | 100.0 |
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Rick Seabaugh, sales manager[96]
- Nicholas Strauss, network engineer[14]
- John Wood, former staff counsel for the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack and former U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Missouri (2007–2009)[97]
Withdrew
- Thomas Schneider, former mayor of Florissant (2011–2019) (endorsed Schatz and Valentine)[98][99]
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- John Danforth, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2004–2005) and U.S. Senator from Missouri (1976–1995)[100][101] (Republican)
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[102] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[103] | Solid R | July 1, 2022 |
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[104] | Safe R | August 2, 2022 |
Politico[105] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[106] | Likely R | August 3, 2022 |
Fox News[107] | Likely R | July 11, 2022 |
DDHQ[108] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
538[109] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present) and candidate for president in 2016[53]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[110]
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)[54]
- Robert C. O’Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021) and Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs (2019–2019)[55]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) and nominee for Governor of Arkansas in 2022[54]
- Matthew Whitaker, acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019), U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa (2004–2009), nominee for Iowa State Treasurer in 2002, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[53]
- State officials
- Winsome Sears, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[56]
- State legislators
- Casey Guernsey, state representative for Missouri’s 2nd district (2008–2014)[57]
- Bill Reiboldt, state representative for Missouri’s 160th district (2010–2018)[57]
- Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway, state representative for Missouri’s 115th district (2021–present)[58]
- Cindy O’Laughlin, state senator for Missouri’s 18th district (2018–present)[58]
- Individuals
- Dana Loesch, radio and TV host[53]
- Rex Sinquefield, philanthropist and President of the Show-Me Institute[59]
- Organizations
- Missouri Fraternal Order of Police[60]
- Gun Owners of America[61]
- Americans for Prosperity Action[62]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[63]
- U.S. Senators
- Jean Carnahan, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2001–2002) and First Lady of Missouri (1993–2000)[83]
- U.S. Representatives
- Emanuel Cleaver, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 5th congressional district (2005–present) and mayor of Kansas City (1991-1999)[94]
- Dick Gephardt, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s 3rd congressional district (1977–2005), House Minority Leader (1995–2003) and House Majority Leader (1989–1995)[86]
- State officials
- Bob Holden, Governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[86]
- State legislators
- Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri’s 76th district (2021–present)[86]
- Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri’s 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri’s 18th district (2015–2018)[86]
- Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri’s 14th district (2021–present)[86]
- Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri’s 82nd district (2017–present)[86]
- Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri’s 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri’s 92nd district (2017–2021)[86]
- Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri’s 81st district (2019–present)[86]
- Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri’s 35th district (2019–present)[86]
- Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri’s 24th district (2015–present) and nominee for Missouri’s 2nd congressional district in 2020[86]
- Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri’s 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri’s 96th district (2011–2013)[67]
- Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri’s 87th district (2019–present)[86]
- Tracy McCreery, state representative for Missouri’s 88th district (2015–present) and 83rd district (2012–2013)[86]
- Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri’s 18th district (2019–present)[86]
- Local officials
- Charlie Dooley, St. Louis County Executive (2003–2015)[86]
- Tishaura Jones, mayor of St. Louis (2021–present)[95]
- Lyda Krewson, mayor of St. Louis (2017–2021)[86]
- Francis Slay, mayor of St. Louis (2001–2017)[86]
- Organizations
- Federal officials
- John Danforth, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2004–2005) and U.S. Senator from Missouri (1976–1995)[100][101] (Republican)
Polling
- Eric Schmitt vs. Trudy Busch Valentine
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 18% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | – | – | 19% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 32% | – | – | 18% |
- Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 26% | 13% | 10% | 21% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | – | – | 22% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | – | – | 9% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 26% | – | – | 40% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[E] | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | – | – | 13% |
- Eric Greitens vs. Trudy Busch Valentine
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 31% | 10% | 8% | 20% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 37% | – | – | 20% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | – | – | 17% |
- Vicky Hartzler vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 20% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 31% | – | – | 24% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 39% | – | – | 5% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 23% | 16% | – | – | 61% |
- Vicky Hartzler vs. Trudy Busch Valentine
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 7% | 21% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 33% | – | – | 18% |
- Billy Long vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Billy Long (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 16% | 17% | 67% |
- Eric Schmitt vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 27% | 10% | 6% | 20% |
SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 34% | – | – | 19% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 23% | – | – | 49% |
- Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce vs. generic independent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Generic Independent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)[K] | February 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 22% |
- Eric Greitens vs. Jay Nixon
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Jay Nixon (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | July 14–15, 2021 | 922 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
- Eric Greitens vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[E] | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | February 17–18, 2021 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
- Eric Greitens vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R)[L] | November 16–18, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[E] | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
- Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
- Vicky Hartzler vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 22% | 17% | 61% |
- Billy Long vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Billy Long (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 13% | 12% | 75% |
- Eric Schmitt vs. Jay Nixon
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Jay Nixon (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
- Eric Schmitt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 23% | 18% | 60% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
- Roy Blunt vs. Jason Kander
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Roy Blunt (R) | Jason Kander (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[M] | January 10–12, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 44% | 12% |
- Roy Blunt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Roy Blunt (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | February 17–18, 2021 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[A] | January 6–7, 2021 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Eric Schmitt | ||||
Democratic | Trudy Busch Valentine | ||||
Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | ||||
Constitution | Paul Venable | ||||
Independent | John Wood | N/A | |||
Total votes |
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Gardner and Tunnell with 1%; Allen, Breyfogle, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, and Sims with 0%
- ^ McElroy, Joiner, and Vaughn with 0%
- ^ Allen, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, McElroy, Schepers, and Sims with 1%; Breyfogle, Chilton, Gardner, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, Tunnell, and Vaughn with 0%
- ^ Deets with 1%; Brinkmann and Porter with 0%
- ^ Jewel Kelly, Ross, and all other candidates combined with 3%
- ^ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Rolen, Ross, Shipp, and Taylor with 0%
- ^ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Ross, and Taylor with 2%; Rolen and Shipp with 1%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Non-partisan poll conducted for the local non-partisan tipsheet Missouri Scout
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll conducted for Missouri First Action, which supports Greitens
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Show Me Values PAC, which opposes Greitens
- ^ Poll conducted for an undisclosed private client
- ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted for Eric Greitens’s campaign
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Protect Missouri Values PAC, which supports Schmitt
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vicky Hartzler’s campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for the Missouri Chamber Political Institute
- ^ This poll was conducted for Toder’s campaign
- ^ This poll was conducted for Kunce’s campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for the Serve America Movement
- ^ Poll conducted for Team PAC, which supports Greitens
- ^ Poll conducted for MoveOn
References
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External links
- Official campaign websites
- Eric Schmitt (R) for Senate
- John Wood (I) for Senate
- Trudy Busch Valentine (D) for Senate
- Paul Venable (C) for Senate